Orbital Domain Faces Growing Threats
Dec 18, 2024
The recent break-up of Intelsat 33e in geostationary orbit (GEO) has highlighted some important vulnerabilities in orbital infrastructure in the complex space exploration and satellite technology. An executive with ExoAnalytic Solutions spoke of the massive security implications of this unprecedented event during the Spacepower Conference in Orlando, Florida.
Visualization of Intelsat 33e break-up in GEO orbit. Credit: Comspoc
After the October 19th incident, the company’s chief growth officer, Clint Clark, said they had identified a large debris field of more than 700 pieces. In the initial assessment, 57 debris fragments were discovered, ranging from softball-sized to car door-sized pieces. Within a week, the number of debris pieces grew to about 500, potentially setting up an orbital environment that’s hazardous. Such a massive debris event could also be strategically useful to malicious actors, Clark warned. He said the chaos of the satellite breaking up could provide cover to launch more objects into the geostationary orbit and not be noticed. The strategic complexity of modern space operations and the opportunity for orbital incident exploitation is also a key theme in this observation.
The satellite’s break-up is the second in a string of four EpicNG high-throughput satellites built for Intelsat that Boeing continues to investigate. Intelsat-29e, the previous satellite in the series, was declared a total loss in 2019 and early reports blamed the failure on a meteoroid impact or a possible wiring flaw. On the panel on emerging space threats, ExoAnalytic Solutions executives highlighted the proliferation of space capabilities among global space powers, especially China’s expanding orbital presence. U.S. Space Force Headquarters’ intelligence directorate chief Master Sgt. Ronald Lerch mentioned the significant expansion of Chinese satellite infrastructure, from 36 satellites in 2010 to thousands in recent years.
Space tracking professionals have observed increasingly sophisticated maneuvers by Chinese satellites, including routine close-up inspections of other orbital objects. What appear to be direct-ascent threat practices have been tracked by ExoAnalytic Solutions, indicating a more complex and even potentially confrontational space environment. Lerch noted that these capabilities have allowed what he called ‘norm shattering behaviors,’ specifically in strategic instances like China’s rising presence in or near Taiwan. It has huge implications for global space security. The proliferation of satellites and the growing number of orbital disruptions demand that international protocols and sophisticated monitoring systems be developed as soon as possible. The potential for strategic disruption increases with the increase in space as a contested domain. Experts said since the Intelsat 33e incident, collision alert systems have stabilized after an initial spike. But the event is a reminder that our orbital ecosystem is fragile and dynamic. With satellite debris, potential strategic manipulations and the increasing space faring capabilities of nations, unprecedented levels of technological sophistication and international cooperation are needed.
Intelsat 33e incident shows that space structure is even more complex than was known before and highlights the critical point in the space security history. It proves that space is not the territory anymore but rather a dynamic and tangible battlefield where technology opportunity, conflict, and scientific risk collide. The accelerated space object placement density together with the possibility of orbital debris stimulating discussed strategic machinations, requires a system strategy to preservation and management of space environment. Collectively, the nations and private entities must invest in enhanced tracking technology as well as international protocols and supervise the sustainable management of the more congested space orbits.
